Row

Probability of > 100 cases (2021-01-16)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of > 100 cases (2021-01-23)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of > 100 cases (2021-01-30)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of R greater 1 (2021-01-16)

Week ending on the date in the title. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

Area search

Switch area.

Row

Reproduction Number

Time-Varying Reproduction Number Rt with uncertainty bands. Vertical line: last day of data included in the model (2021-01-12).

Weekly Cases per 100k

Weekly reported cases per 100,000 population; Red bars: reported cases in a given week; Bands: Fitted/predicted value in the model; Vertical line: last day of data included in the model (2021-01-12).

Row

Daily Infections by 100k

Estimated daily infections per 100,000 population.

Row

History of most recent R estimate

This shows how the most recent R estimate has evolved over time. This estimate is used for projections.

History of Projections for Week ending 2021-01-16

History of Projections for Week ending 2021-01-23

History of Projections for Week ending 2021-01-30

Row

About

Authors: Swapnil Mishra1, Jamie Scott2, Harrison Zhu2, Neil Ferguson1, Samir Bhatt1, Seth Flaxman2, Axel Gandy2

  • 1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London
  • 2Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London
  • Correspondence to a.gandy@imperial.ac.uk

Website Development: Aided by Fabian Valka

For methodology please cite the accompnying pre-print, A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom.

The results on this page have been computed using epidemia.

Last day of data included in the model: 2021-01-12.

The model was fitted on Fri Jan 15 07:19:29 2021 (UTC).

If you use our outputs, please cite DOI