Probability of > 100 cases (2022-04-02)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. ■ 0.00 – 0.25 ■ 0.25 – 0.75 ■ 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of > 100 cases (2022-04-09)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. ■ 0.00 – 0.25 ■ 0.25 – 0.75 ■ 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of > 100 cases (2022-04-16)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. ■ 0.00 – 0.25 ■ 0.25 – 0.75 ■ 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of R greater 1 (2022-04-02)

Week ending on the date in the title. ■ 0.00 – 0.25 ■ 0.25 – 0.75 ■ 0.75 – 1.00.

Reproduction Number

Time-Varying Reproduction Number R_t with uncertainty bands. Vertical line: last day of data included in the model (2022-03-26).

Weekly Cases per 100k

Weekly reported cases per 100,000 population; Red bars: reported cases in a given week; Bands: Fitted/predicted value in the model; Vertical line: last day of data included in the model (2022-03-26).

Daily Infections by 100k

Estimated daily infections per 100,000 population.

History of most recent R estimate

This shows how the most recent R estimate has evolved over time. This estimate is used for projections.

History of Projections for Week ending 2022-04-02

History of Projections for Week ending 2022-04-09

History of Projections for Week ending 2022-04-16

About

Authors: Swapnil Mishra¹, Jamie Scott², Harrison Zhu², Neil Ferguson¹, Samir Bhatt¹, Seth Flaxman², Axel Gandy²

• ¹MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London
• ²Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London
• Correspondence to a.gandy@imperial.ac.uk

Website Development: Aided by Fabian Valka

For methodology please cite the accompnying pre-print, A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom.

The results on this page have been computed using epidemia.

Last day of data included in the model: 2022-03-26.

The model was fitted on Tue Mar 29 21:02:33 2022 (UTC).

If you use our outputs, please cite