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Probability of > 50 cases (2020-09-19)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of > 50 cases (2020-09-26)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of > 50 cases (2020-10-03)

Per 100,000 population and week. Week ending on the above date. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

Probability of R greater 1 (2020-09-19)

Week ending on the date in the title. 0.00 – 0.25 0.25 – 0.75 0.75 – 1.00.

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Reproduction Number

Time-Varying Reproduction Number Rt with uncertainty bands. Vertical line: last day of data included in the model (2020-09-16).

Weekly Cases per 100k

Weekly reported cases per 100,000 population; Red bars: reported cases in a given week; Bands: Fitted/predicted value in the model; Vertical line: last day of data included in the model (2020-09-16).

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About

Authors: Swapnil Mishra1, Jamie Scott2, Harrison Zhu2, Neil Ferguson1, Samir Bhatt1, Seth Flaxman2, Axel Gandy2

  • 1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London
  • 2Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London
  • Correspondence to a.gandy@imperial.ac.uk

Website Development: Aided by Fabian Valka

The results on this page have been computed using epidemia.

Last day of data included in the model: 2020-09-16.

The model was fitted on Sat Sep 19 16:43:56 2020 (UTC).